On June 18, I wrote to a skeptical friend about Conille’s chances of resolving our security crisis, suggesting he might have his Indian summer... until autumn. But can the country afford to wait until autumn? On his return to Haiti, Garry Conille had gained a lot of sympathy by visiting displaced persons' shelters, but he has not capitalized on that goodwill since. It seems he is more focused on draining the Transitional Presidential Council of its substance and power. The much-anticipated restructuring is still awaited. To borrow from a French historian, he is shaking the tree without knowing what fruit he will harvest.

In response to Chérizier’s repeated calls for dialogue, Conille has insistently demanded that the gangs lay down their arms and recognize the authority of the state. Lay down arms where and to whom? Recognize the state’s authority? How? A state does not demand recognition; it imposes itself. Machiavelli wrote to his Prince, “It is always better to yield to force than to the threat of death.” As long as criminal gangs are not panicked in their strongholds, their combative audacity will remain unshaken. By announcing the end of criminal organizations without taking action, the police chief only reinforces them. It’s as if words bring more harm. The initial trust is increasingly giving way to dismay, as the setting has changed but not the scene.