The return of a democratically elected president to lead the country does not appear imminent, while the last general elections were held in 2015. More than ten years later, the country remains plunged into a deep political and security crisis, marked by the growing grip of armed gangs fueling insecurity in several regions of the country. This situation continues to weaken state institutions and further complicates the organization of credible and inclusive elections.

According to Pierre Espérance, the chances of elections being held in 2026 are practically nonexistent. “There is not even a 1% chance that elections will be organized this year, even during the final months or final days of 2026,” Pierre Espérance stated. “It is impossible. However, if genuine political will exists, they could take place in 2027. But before the Provisional Electoral Council can organize a first round, the population must be able to move freely throughout the country. That implies reopening the national roads, restoring control of disadvantaged neighborhoods by law enforcement forces, eliminating toll checkpoints, and putting an end to gang attacks against citizens. Only from that moment can we begin counting eight months to organize elections,” he added.