Colorado State University is forecasting well-below-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. A reason for relief? Not for Haiti, where a single system is enough to cause a disaster.

Since July 8, Colorado State University (CSU), a global authority on seasonal hurricane forecasting, has lowered its expectations for the 2026 Atlantic season for the second time this year. Nine named storms, four hurricanes and only one major hurricane: figures clearly below the average of the past 30 years, which stands at nearly 14 storms and seven hurricanes. The reason is an increasingly pronounced El Niño phenomenon as the peak of the season approaches, from mid-August through October, which is expected to strengthen wind shear over the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean, slowing the formation of tropical systems.